Race predictor
Type in a race you’ve run recently. Velox reads a fitness score from it and works out what that fitness runs over every distance, the paces to train at and the splits for race day. Free, with no account.
Your race
Equivalent times
Enter a race and every distance fills in here, with your training paces and race-day splits beneath.
How it’s worked out
- Computed, not guessed
- Your time and distance give a fitness score: the oxygen your race shows you can use, adjusted for how long you held it. The same model then works out what that score runs over any other distance, and the paces to train at. Velox’s plans and predictions use the same code.
- One hard race
- The model holds for efforts lasting 3½ minutes to 5 hours, run all out. A training run, or a hilly or hot race, reads lower than your fitness, so enter your best recent race on a flat course.
- From every run you recordPro
- With a Garmin or Polar connected, Velox finds your fastest efforts of the last eight weeks itself and predicts from those, so the times move as your fitness does.
- How far to trust each onePro
- In the app each prediction is rated by how many runs it rests on, how close your longest recent run is to the distance, and how far the time is carried from the effort behind it.
- A plan at these pacesPro
- Velox builds a week-by-week plan from your fitness, every session paced in these zones. Building one is free; Pro shows every session in full, re-paces it as you get fitter and sends it to a Garmin.
Race predictor questions
What is the fitness score?
A single number for the fitness one race shows: close to your VO₂ max, adjusted for how economically you run, and read from a race result rather than measured in a lab. The higher it is, the faster every pace. Velox’s training plans and predictions start from the same score.
How accurate are the predictions?
They’re what your fitness supports if you’ve trained for the distance and run it at even pace on a good day. The closer a distance is to the race you entered, the more they hold; times carried a long way are marked, since they depend on endurance one race can’t show.
Why is my marathon prediction faster than I can run?
The model assumes the endurance for the distance: the long runs and weekly mileage a marathon takes. Without them, the last third of a marathon slows more than the model allows. In the app, a prediction says when your longest recent run is well short of the distance.
Which race should I enter?
Your best recent race, run all out on a flat course, ideally within the last couple of months and as close as you can to the distance you want to predict. A 10K or a half predicts a marathon better than a mile does.
Is it free?
Yes, and you don’t need an account. Velox’s own predictions, read from the runs on your watch with a confidence rating for each, are part of Pro, which starts with 7 days free.
Predict from every run
Connect a Garmin or Polar and every run is analysed free. Predictions from those runs, each with a confidence rating, and a plan at your paces come with Pro, which starts with 7 days free.